"A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall"
We do not know how many readers of this website still believe the various tales told in the media that the (terminally ill) economy will "eventually" recover and most of us can resume living in the privileged manner we took so for granted just a little while ago.
Sadly, the conventional information sources are still denying that what this society is really beginning to experience is the prelude to the "Converging Catastrophes of the 21st Century" -- and therefore cannot begin an intelligent explanation why this might be the case. (There are, however, a few rare exceptions, a couple of examples of which we'll discuss below.)But at least a portion of those with interest in the scythe and other "essential tools" sometimes ask us for references to a more explanatory version of present developments. Many of these folks are recent transplants from a city lot to a rural property and not only new to the use of farm and garden tools but also to the alternative scene as a whole. Some may have read a few issues of the Mother Earth magazine or a book by Wendell Berry (which in fact may have inspired their move) but not a whole lot more.
While purchasing a homestead some distance from a city with the vision of becoming "self-sufficient" is generally a sound idea, it may now be an outdated one. Namely, there is nowhere to really hide from the brewing storm. A more in-depth grasp of the issues at hand will help us -- individually and collectively -- to better prepare for the challenges ahead and possibly strengthen us for the swim to the somewhat sunnier side of the cold, wide river... Because we are entering a period of major societal transformation, the task of building new communities as well as revitalizing the existing ones, has far more merit than a solo family survival venture; on this note check the movement. The Internet is already full of pertinent information on the subject, what we attempt here is a little contribution and at the same time a response to the requests mentioned above.
First of all, the title of this rant is meant to remind you of in which he so aptly described the effects of advanced capitalism. All these years later, little of substance has changed so as to give him grounds -- if he wanted to update those lyrics -- to now paint a more positive picture of our world. The analysis of this pot-smoking cultural critic was accurate then and still applies now. And so, yes, the hard rain is inevitable... and yes, we are all (albeit to various degrees) accomplices to the corporate rain-dancers...
Secondly, it is important to understand that the present economic crisis didn't come about just because the American people (aided by a league of financial con artists) didn't know when to quit living beyond their means. The root cause of the tumble is far more complicated and quite connected to the diminishing of resources on all fronts. For some grasp of how the dwindling supplies of the drug and lifeblood of the Economy of Growth is about to impact every aspect of our physical existence, the subject of Peak Oil is one to read up on. The list of authors who have addressed the theme is long (just type those two words into Google search and you will be provided with reading material until Christmas 2012) but (now a Senior Fellow at the ) is probably our favourite. Peak Everything is his most recent book, and its subtitle -- "Waking Up to the Century of Declines" -- sums it up. Along with several other eye-openers, it should be mandatory reading throughout the educational system from high school on. Given the wisdom (or is it integrity?) of our leaders, this is of course an outrageous suggestion... In any case, read this book as well as Heinberg's monthly .
Most of the Peak Oil authors debunk the still-popular notion that the various energy-generating alternatives, singly or together, can take the place of oil on time to keep the global infrastructure from collapsing. They all agree that we have long run out of aces and that to play our remaining cards right we have to now become fully AWAKE.
, who on his weekly blog ruffles feathers on left and right of the political and environmental spectrum, may be the most outspoken (some would call him "abrasive") of our contemporary cultural critics. His book The Long Emergency can be thought of as a kind of saga of American capitalism and makes for a thought-provoking read on the political, financial and industrial history of the USA. It, as well as his blog, is sure to annoy the staunch patriots, but the open-minded will appreciate this healthy antithesis to Fox News. Given Obama's administration's efforts to date, the hope of receiving tangible support from "above has been evaporating by the week, and Kunstler continues to remind the American public of the fact. However, his latest rant provides a link to an interesting hypothesis on .
Thirdly, the collapse of the financial system and the diminishing supply of crude oil may both prove to be blessings in the long run and more tolerable than the phenomenon of Climate Change -- the potentially most destructive "warrior" we have yet had to face. Many former civilizations -- the advanced, the powerful, or even the sustainable-by-design -- did not manage to withstand the spontaneous effects of climatic changes... and only bare bones remain of their once notable accomplishments. What may be exceptional in our case is that the way we have behaved (i.e. taken so much) is now thought to be the direct cause of the present warming of the atmosphere.
In recent years many worthwhile books have been published on the subject. But the theme is an alarming one and as such does not make a popular read... The politicians and the economists are outright scared of it, even though simply ignoring it is becoming progressively more difficult. So at best they parrot -- in half-seriousness -- the goals of emission reductions set by the Kyoto protocol -- a long-outdated blueprint. The climate scientists have since then been repeatedly slapped on their (sometimes presumptuous) noses when they look in the rear view mirror on their own relatively recent predictions. As an example, early in 2007 the experts more or less agreed that based on the progression of global warming, it is likely for the North West Passage (the suspected ancient seafaring route, solidly frozen since modern record keeping began) to become open again in two to three decades. By September of the same year the NASA satellites reported it to be completely free of ice! So much for some scientific prophecy... The upshot is that, during the March 2009 the Copenhagen Climate Change Congress 2,500 scientists concluded: "Recent observations confirm that, given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realized."
Whatever exactly they mean by worse than worst-case scenario -- specifically with regard to the average citizen's ability to continue leading a life -- is still open to interpretation. Nevertheless, all this stuff already disturbs the relative peace of our present existence, and is, for the most part, denied. Even many eco-conscious individuals would rather settle into a sofa in their comfortable homes with a positive-future novel in their lap...
Well, for those who can digest the truth about climate change if it is served on a platter of hope, there is a book which stands on a mountaintop league of its own. In a remarkable synthesis of science, humanitarianism and spirituality, Hell and High Water may well be the most holistic presentation to date on the challenges rapidly converging on our doorstep.
Knowing about some of Alastair's activist work, in his native Scotland as well as internationally, he brings to mind a combination of Wendell Berry, Ivan Illich and Mahatma Gandhi. In addition, while preparing to write Hell and High Water, he seems to have worked like a mad archaeologist with an oversized shovel digging for clues to help him (and then us) better understand our present predicament; in the process he churned up an impressive amount of ground. The tentative map he draws for the path into the future is a refreshing addition to the suggestions presented by many other writers.
Because "hope" is a variously used term ("Having given up hope, I feel much better" being an example), a few excerpts to clarify its meaning in Alastair's thesis may be in order:
"There is a slow urgency about what humankind's levels of consumption are doing to the Earth. Slow, in that it is difficult to register it in ways that can trigger radical action on political timescales. But urgent, in that the ratchet is tightening especially if we have any care at all for future generations. The tipping points of no return show signs of slipping. That is why I have been forced to abandon optimism and seek resource in hope".
....."I perversely hold out hope for humanity, not in spite of global warming, but precisely because it confronts us with a wake-up call to consciousness. Answering that call of the wild to the wild within us all invites outer action matched by inner transformation."
"I have attempted to shift the paradigm of Climate Change over a threshold and into a realm that speaks in poetry, myth and vision. I have attempted a restoration to consciousness of the metaphysical that was crushed in the heartless vice of uni-dimensional positivism".
...."Too much inner life without the grounding nourishment of getting our hands dirty is just as toxic to the soul as the other way round. We need a dance between the fantastical and the practical; not apartheid between the two. Our drift must be towards becoming whole people in a whole world. We are talking here of a spirituality that is both transcendent and immanent".
"And so, hope is not about sitting back on tenterhooks and waiting for a miracle to happen. Hope is being receptive to a new mind and a new heart. Hope is about setting in place the preconditions that might reconstitute life, and then getting on with it. All else is hubris on the bonfire of vanities."
And from the revised introduction to the recent reprint:
"Everything said about ancient hubris here in Part 2 applies directly to the economic crisis. Both the credit crunch and the climate crunch have the same origin. Our resultant predicament is like a tangled ball of string. Pull on any end, and all connects -- far and wide, outer and inner, even tighter. It's grim, but it's exciting: for what it demands of us collectively today is nothing less than visionary depth -- the courage of getting more real."
On this subject, who next deserves appreciative mention is North America's most ardent Climate Change activist -- . To keep abreast of what he and his comrades are up to, check out . This may well be the single most pertinent and up-to-date website dedicated to efforts to lower the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. McKibben has written several good books and continues to inspire, organize and take part in demonstrations on behalf of Life on this planet. For all that, he has earned our lasting respect. In any case, get on their email list and support the actions by at the very least signing of the various petitions!
Another important eye-opener is Plan C by Pat Murphy, the director of , and co-producer of the documentary film The Power Of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil. Not only is this book a compendium of more statistical data (many presented in graphs) than any I've come across thus far, its special slogan is "curtailment" (of our wants, needs and resulting consumption). As opposed to the more popular notion of conservation where a family might reduce their ecological footprint by 10-20%, Murphy's curtailment calls for 80-90% reduction!
The website of -- the co-author (with ) of the recently published book Nation of Farmers is full of pertinent information. Check out, for instance -- a positively presented list of many excellent suggestions written primarily for urban dwellers but useful for everyone new to the theme.
Now some positive news:
London, April 2009. While the G20 sought to re-inflate the same old economy with "sustainable global growth", the UK Government's Sustainable Development Commission dared to bite the hand that feeds it -- and posted (the same week), a 130-page report with the conclusion: "The myth of growth has failed us." You can find the whole thesis here:
To all the people that have been on the same page as Schumacher's Small is Beautiful, Donella Meadows' Limits to Growth (1972!), Wendell Berry's What are People For? and dozens upon dozens of similar statements, the report is no revelation. But coming from the neocolonialists' own watchdog, this is a noteworthy and welcome step in at least approximately the right direction. How much solid good it will accomplish remains to be seen -- because the lords of today's infrastructure do not yet appear ready to trade their swords for hoes and shovels. Will it take some greatly scaled-up version of the French Revolution to have them yield? Let's hope not since such a showdown could be a messy one.
...and some puzzling news:
Our own Canadian Broadcasting Corporation recently devoted several minutes of television time to profiling the Canadian anarchist , author of Peak Oil Survival: Preparation for Life After Gridcrash.
Was it some accidental slip away from the status-quo newscast or is somebody up there beginning to smell the rat? In any case, the CBC ought to have also interviewed whose When Technology Fails (490 pages) presents a far more comprehensive and a holistic perspective on the subject. The 2008 edition also contains an excellent foreword by Richard Heinberg.
To be continued. :-)